Details Of C-Band Order Positive For Intelsat

Press reporting suggests that the C-Band Order will come at the December 12th FCC Open meeting (with a draft made available 3 weeks earlier). The report suggests that the Order would allow for 280MHz of C-Band spectrum to be sold via a private auction in 1H20 (though this could potentially come in two auctions). In addition, the auction is unlikely to include combinatorial bidding. Overall, we find the report supportive of our Intelsat Buy thesis (see initiation report HERE) as well as our policy reporting on the likely timing, amount of spectrum and likely party holding the auction.

The most important data point is that the spectrum will be sold via private auction; this increases the likelihood of a low government cut of the overall proceeds (our base case is 20%). In addition, a private auction lowers the odds of rules that would artificially undermine bidding tension (such as overly proscriptive bidding caps). Our Intelsat Buy case rests on the view that 1) an auction of the C-Band will raise $50BN in proceeds, and 2) that the government cut will be around or below our base case of 20%. On the heels of press reporting on the details of the Order, we continue to believe in both drivers of our thesis.

Full 12-month historical recommendation changes are available on request

Reports produced by New Street Research LLP. 52 Cornhill, London EC3V 3PD Tel: +44 20 7375 9111.

New Street Research LLP is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority and is registered in the United States with the Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser.

Regulatory Disclosures: This research is directed only at persons classified as Professional Clients under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority (‘FCA’), and must not be re-distributed to Retail Clients as defined in the rules of the FCA.

This research is for our clients only. It is based on current public information which we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Most of our reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgment. This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.

All our research reports are disseminated and available to all clients simultaneously through electronic publication to our website.

New Street Research LLC is neither a registered investment advisor nor a broker/dealer. Subscribers and/or readers are advised that the information contained in this report is not to be construed or relied upon as investment, tax planning, accounting and/or legal advice, nor is it to be construed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or any other form of investment. All opinions, analyses and information contained herein is based upon sources believed to be reliable and is written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, is made herein concerning any investment, tax, accounting and/or legal matter or the accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness and/or appropriateness of any of the information contained herein. Subscribers and/or readers are further advised that the Company does not necessarily update the information and/or opinions set forth in this and/or any subsequent version of this report. Readers are urged to consult with their own independent professional advisors with respect to any matter herein. All information contained herein and/or this website should be independently verified.

All research is issued under the regulatory oversight of New Street Research LLP.

© Copyright 2021 New Street Research LLP

No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of New Street Research LLP.