RESEARCH

5G: a debased currency, probably for the best

How does the new 5G smartphone in my hand relate to the sunlit visions of 5G that I hear from politicians, the media and lobbyists? If 5G is our portal to a future of smart cities, smart factories and even a smart society, how does that begin with this shiny new device that, if I’m lucky, can download data at close to 1Gbps? (ten times faster than my tired old 4G phone that now sits idle).

There is no real linkage of course. The uplifting visions of tech-enabled prosperity, contentment and efficiency may or may not be realised in the decades ahead.  If they are realised, then the elegant and potent architecture of the ‘5G Core’ may well be the foundation stone, running fully virtualised on an invisible web of datacentres.  However, my new 5G phone is many, many rungs below this on the ladder of technology progress.  It will be in landfill long before this sublime new architecture is in place. It will almost certainly never connect to even the most basic 5G Core, unless I’m in China.

If I’m less lucky then my new 5G phone may not download any faster than my old 4G phone. I may have to become a speed test obsessive, anxious to prove that 80Mbps on 5G beats the 60Mbps that I used to get with 4G on that street corner at that time of day.  More likely I will just realise that I was pretty happy with 60Mbps – and, hey, it’s a great new phone – just enjoy it!

Some of us won’t even need to pay up for a new phone. The ‘4G’ icon on the screen will just flip to ‘5G’ – or perhaps ‘5G e’ or ‘5Gish’. Result! (and no need to become a speed test obsessive – your download speed will not have changed, and it will still be perfectly adequate most of the time).

The widespread debasement of ‘5G’ may seem a shame – particularly to engineers.  The standardisation and development of 5G (as a set of radio and core technologies) is a truly astonishing achievement that should be celebrated and honoured. To see these technologies launched in the wrong spectrum bands (for political spinning and marketing advantage) or simply mislabelled (to mislead consumers) can be upsetting. To hear visionary 5G nonsense spouted by politicians who know little about technology, and next to nothing about wireless networks, is also upsetting. (Engineers grow used to this – but it still grates every time, I’m told).

However, this rapid and comprehensive debasement of 5G is probably for the best.  The quicker that ‘5G’ can leave the spotlight, the sooner it can resume its real role as a useful toolkit for networking progress. If it’s clear that consumers are confused about 5G – particularly over ‘do I have it yet?’ – then marketeers and politicians will soon turn away to other hooks and soundbites. The telecoms industry can then resume ‘business as usual’ – how to combine spectrum, sites and technology to serve ever-growing demand for connectivity at ever-lower unit costs. The sooner the better!

The remainder of the Global Weekly Review can be found HERE along with all past and future reports.  Our updated valuation comp sheets can be found HERE.

 


Full 12-month historical recommendation changes are available on request

Reports produced by New Street Research LLP, 18th Floor, 100 Bishopsgate, London, EC2N 4AG. Tel: +44 20 7375 9111.

New Street Research LLP is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority and is registered in the United States with the Securities and Exchange Commission as a foreign investment adviser.

Regulatory Disclosures: This research is directed only at persons classified as Professional Clients under the rules of the Financial Conduct Authority (‘FCA’), and must not be re-distributed to Retail Clients as defined in the rules of the FCA.

This research is for our clients only. It is based on current public information which we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Most of our reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgment. This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.

All our research reports are disseminated and available to all clients simultaneously through electronic publication to our website.

New Street Research LLC is neither a registered investment advisor nor a broker/dealer. Subscribers and/or readers are advised that the information contained in this report is not to be construed or relied upon as investment, tax planning, accounting and/or legal advice, nor is it to be construed in any way as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or any other form of investment. All opinions, analyses and information contained herein is based upon sources believed to be reliable and is written in good faith, but no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, is made herein concerning any investment, tax, accounting and/or legal matter or the accuracy, completeness, correctness, timeliness and/or appropriateness of any of the information contained herein. Subscribers and/or readers are further advised that the Company does not necessarily update the information and/or opinions set forth in this and/or any subsequent version of this report. Readers are urged to consult with their own independent professional advisors with respect to any matter herein. All information contained herein and/or this website should be independently verified.

All research is issued under the regulatory oversight of New Street Research LLP.

Copyright © New Street Research LLP

No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of New Street Research LLP.